Land allocation under consideration of weather-induced crop yield variations: Decision support by a crop yield simulation and risk analysis model (ERM)

摘要

This paper presents a PC-based crop yield simulation and risk analysis model for a single farm, with the weather as the stochastic component. The ERM allows the calculation of the distribution of the farm net returns for a specific crop-rotation plan. Compared to other risk analysis models, the ERM does not ask the user to supply recorded farm data related to the past nor does it employ a specific utility function. In the ERM, the farm-specific context is included in having the farmer specify the minimum, maximum and average crop yield for four out of 17 analysed crops. The application of the ERM to an arable farm is demonstrated